ГМО

The major factors defining development GM of technology in the near future 

Population growth, especially in developing countries, causes growth of requirements for foodstuff and forages. It leads to necessity of increase of productivity of arable lands and распашке nonagricultural grounds. And though population growth last decade was a little slowed down, nevertheless, in absolute value the population has considerably increased, basically at the expense of developing countries [5].

With growth of incomes the requirement for foodstuff grows in developing countries, especially meat, and consequently also requirement for forages for animal industries. It is predicted that India and China with their intensively developing economy [6] will be the basic consumers of the American agricultural production received with use of biotechnologies, and maintenance with foodstuff of the population of developing countries becomes the primary goal of agriculture of the USA

Increasing alarm of the public concerning health and eutrophy preventive maintenance, and also the requirement of scrupulous quality check of products will lead to food-processing industry changes. Facing an abundance and a variety of foodstuff, consumers in the developed countries become especially exacting concerning products which they buy. Requirements of consumers to the information on components, safety and technologies of reception of products will increase in due course. It stimulates development of difficult information technology. The combination of technological progress to increasing interest to the information will lead to occurrence of numerous information channels.

More and more interest of consumers to production technologies of foodstuff increases. In due course in the developed countries in the markets products with the various marks which part will take place the state check will be presented. Consumers will rely on the state and regulatory bodies concerning safety of foodstuff and safety of agricultural crops for the ecological environment.

The market of foodstuff will quickly change depending on the inquiries of the consumer directed on preservation of health. These inquiries (pro's and con's meat or carbohydrates) will form wide borders of a consumer choice of products.

Undereating and hunger in global scales continues to remain the basic problem of world agricultural production. Despite enough of foodstuff in the world, undereating, hunger and небезопасность some foodstuff continues to remain not only in underdeveloped countries, but also among the poor population in industrially developed countries.

Tendencies of an urbanization and большего technological equipment of agriculture continue to develop. This direction is supervised by commercial sector of agriculture and stimulates standardization and consolidation processes. In system of manufacture agricultural production it is involved ever less people.

Application of specific knowledge causes changes of economy of all countries. Distribution of new technologies will create all conditions for innovations. New technologies and their end-products will be developed and applied by scientists and businessmen in all countries, irrespective of intellectual property rights. New ideas and possibilities will lead to social and economic changes in the industrial countries and behind their limits

The agricultural policy will influence considerably global trading and economic policy: pressure of the WTO upon the developed countries for liberalization of their agricultural policy will amplify. Bilateral trading agreements will develop. The alarms connected with application of biotechnological products, will be, possibly, are used by competitors of the USA for creation of certain technical trading barriers that first of all will concern foodstuff.

The USA remain the leader in the field of biotechnologies, including medical and agricultural. The reguljatornaja system of EU and consumer preferences will continue to influence world agricultural industrial system. Expanded EU remains the huge market of products of global agriculture.

Growing dialogue «the South with the South» at trading and political forums will strengthen influence of China and India on other developing countries and will increase their contribution to a global situation. Next decade the increase in a role of China which the challenge can throw down to domination of the USA on the world scene is predicted.

Acute problems of water resources leave not only on regional, but also on the international level. It is obvious that fresh water stocks will be used first of all for drinking needs and to a lesser degree for the agricultural. Quality of fresh water in the world will decrease. Before the world community problems of preservation of water resources, applications of new agricultural technologies and technologies of zero processing of soil will be put.

The quantity of carbonic gas and other hotbed gases increases in atmosphere. Global climate changes continue to accrue. The international efforts are focused on delay and softening of such effects. Growth of level of carbonic gas in atmosphere will increase because of fast industrialization in many developing countries, especially in China. Change of agricultural industrial schemes and a policy in the field of power can be the answer to global warming only.

In the world the areas of arable lands because of process of an urbanization, needs of the preservation, unstable agricultural production and soil degradation are reduced. It, undoubtedly, influences agricultural production volumes, leads распашке the new arable lands badly adapted for use, and to extinction of kinds in these territories, especially in developing countries.

The rise in prices for fuel and reduction of stocks of combustible minerals becomes one of the most important problems for agriculture of the USA. Alarms concerning an exhaustion of stocks of combustible fuel in a combination to costs of technological progress have led to necessity of creation of biofuel. The high prices for energy carriers compel to use synthetic fertilizers that provokes decrease in long viability of new farmlands which are dependent on huge quantities of fertilizers in the USA.

The increased global trading and tourist streams considerably increase risk of occurrence of new illnesses, and also cause faster distribution of illnesses among plants, animals and people. The changed agricultural systems, reduction of the areas for agromanufacture, climate warming create new conditions for occurrence of new agricultural illnesses.

The considerable new areas under agricultural production in the South America, especially in Brazil and Argentina are developed. Thereof there will be changes in the soya market and powerful pressure upon the basic exporter – the USA that will find expression in decrease in volumes of export will be put.

In agricultural system of manufacture of foodstuff four cultures will dominate: the corn, soybeans, wheat and fig. These cultures can be used also as agricultural resources.

Tendencies of globalization and consolidation in agriculture will go deep. These directions will strengthen vertical integration into a technological chain of reception of foodstuff, will lead to wider use of monocultures in agromanufacture in large farms. Consolidation in the global food industry and increasing market capacity of the big retail food companies, such as Wal-Mart, McDonalds, will strengthen internal or international influence of separate commercial decisions on use of transgene components and products.

In the industrial countries high degree of debts and considerable budgetary deficiencies will remain. For removal of budgetary pressure turns of agricultural trade which historically was the basic investor in the American export will increase. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Strategy of development of agriculture

in Russia 

Russia shouldn't copy the American way of development rural agriculture (regarding wide circulation GMO) for four reasons.

1. Obvious risk for health of the person and surrounding wildlife and rather implicit benefits for a society. In Russia, with its demographic crisis (every year the number of Russians decreases for 1 million), it is desirable to avoid any additional threat for population health. To 30 % premature death in Russia it is caused by the ecological reasons. It is necessary to reduce ecological risk factors, instead of to add the new. The American way (use of unhealthy food, and then effective recovery of health), is impossible in Russia, where expenses on health services it is many times less, than in the USA.

2. In Russia aren't necessary super-steady against pesticides H'm-grade as problems of suppression by pesticides of grown up plants practically don't exist. We (unlike the majority of the developed countries) have huge reserves for conducting traditional agriculture without

Pesticides. Productivity in Russia wasn't reduced, and has a little grown for the last 14 беспестицидных years. Both world, and the Russian experience show that without chemistry, with organic fertilizers (manure, straw), with steams, sparing plowing, with moderate application of mineral fertilizers, it is possible to receive about 30–35 centners grain from hectare. If it is made, Russia (together with Ukraine) can again as it was in the XX-th century beginning to provide with grain all Europe

3. Distribution GM-potato in the Russian conditions simply dangerously.

Under the American regulations, that haven't arisen super-harmful (steady against Bt-toxin) races of a Colorado bug simultaneous observance of three conditions is necessary:

- Annual change of fields;

- Annual change of grades;

- Preservation in each potato field of islets of wild vegetation where natural enemies and parasites of this bug could breed.

In Russia each condition is impracticable, without speaking already about all together. We will add to it that all collected potato long isn't stored in the USA, as at once goes for processing. Therefore such property H'm-potato as weak лежкость (in the course of storage 60–100 % of tubers perish) doesn't disturb the American farmers.

In the conditions of Russia as a result of distribution H'm-potato, first, everywhere there will be super-steady populations of a Colorado bug and, secondly, potato losses at storage will catastrophically increase. Loss of health by people in which diet the potato is «the second bread» (it not less than 20 million persons) will be a following consequence.

4. Production of the Russian agriculture becomes more and more attractive in the world food market under condition of preservation of its ecological cleanliness. Distribution ГМО will for ever deprive our agriculture of this strategic advantage 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Whether Russia is ready to distribution of transgene cultures?

Today Russia is extremely vulnerable concerning distribution H'm-cultures: the market of grain and seeds is regulated by the state poorly, position about obligatory marks of grain GM-cultures, products and the forages containing components, received from H'm-sources doesn't operate; the satisfactory technique of testing H'm-cultures on safety isn't developed; strategy of safe cultivation H'm-cultures and uses H'm-products isn't generated, there is no concept fytosanitory both ecological monitoring of crops H'm-cultures and stored production. Questions of cultivation, processing, use H'm-production, taking into account constant nation-wide monitoring of their safety, should be particularly formulated, and their decision is financed by the state. Researches H'm-cultures should be spent to Russia isn't isolated, and actually only in interests of foreign biotechnological firms as it occurs now. Such researches should be organized first of all in interests of development (and

safety) domestic agriculture. Without such researches of a consequence of possible mass introduction GM-plants in domestic plant growing are unpredictable.

It is necessary to consider that the list and the characteristic of risks of cultivation H'm-cultures will be constant to change, as they интродуцируются  in the uncontrollable environment. In Russia there is no recommendatory literature, there are no confirmed techniques and means for realization of fytosanitory monitoring, there are no officially recognized test systems for revealing H'm -

Plants, aren't present the technologies of their cultivation which has been built in existing domestic technologies of cultivation of corresponding cultures. At a solution of a problem of commercial cultivation H'm-cultures it is impossible to repeat errors with introduction in agriculture of the chemical pesticides. Their application hasn't solved a problem of maintenance with the foodstuffs of the population of the Earth, hungry wasn't lowered, but has increased the problems connected with safety of foodstuff and ecological well-being of the population and the nature. As a result, the modern agriculture can't do without some pesticides. Probably, in the future it won't manage and without some H'm-cultures. Therefore already now it is necessary to solve a problem of protection against H'm-technologies genetic resources of cultural plants, a biodiversity, and also protection of plants against wreckers and illnesses. It is necessary to understand, environmental problems as a result of large-scale distribution H'm-cultures become how much serious in Russia. At cultural plants it is characterized all about 8 % of genes. At traditional selection there is a constant selection of the best seeds on a complex of signs. Because of a small level of scrutiny генома cultural plants while aren't present other ways to avoid «genetic marriage», except how to spend artificial selection. For H'm-cultures it it is impossible.

The basic directions of researches of safety H'm-cultures should become:

• working out of the state system of fytosanitory monitoring of crops H'm-cultures, storage of a crop and a consequence use for the food and fodder purposes of products of their processing; by such monitoring all should be covered imported H'm-products and H'm-culture;

• research of consequences of carrying over of R-genes; reception in different geo-environmental conditions of the authentic data on influence H'm-cultures on long-term dynamics of populations of phytophages and their predators, on the cores of activators of diseases and weeds and on change of dominating kinds;

• finding-out of admissible (safe) parities in crops of one culture of grades H'm-cultures and usual;

• an estimation of a pesticidal press on crops H'm-cultures and its influences on occurrence of resistant populations of suppressed kinds, activators of illnesses and the weeds living on crops of traditional grades. Creation of the state system of identification H'm - is necessary

Cultures and control over their use, and also an establishment of measures of responsibility of manufacturers and переработчиков H'm-cultures for harm drawing агроценозам, to ecosystems and consumers.

When speak about a wide circulation H'm-cultures in the USA as an example for imitation, usually hold back that 25 indicators of agricultural production are in the USA under rigid state control. For example, commercial use of the Bt-protected cultures was authorized only under condition of strict observance of strategy of restraint of development of resistance of wreckers to Bt-toxins. Cultivation гербицидоустойчивых H'm-cultures at our technologies can generate the irresponsible reference with pesticides.

Now the domestic agriculture loses to 30 % of all production from imperfection of technologies, and as a whole – to 100 million grain units a year from low level of a fytosanitory condition. Already now speed of increase in harmful influence of anthropogenous factors has fallen outside the limits speed of the adaptation to them of live systems, including agrosystems. Manufacture H'm-cultures in Russia is economically inexpedient. By V.A.Puhalsky's calculations (institute of the general genetics of N.I.Vavilov of the Russian Academy of Sciences), only on delivery of non-polluting agricultural products Russia can earn 100 млрд dollars, having generated thus non-polluting landscapes.

Russia not only it is not ready to mass introduction in manufacture H'm-cultures, but also doesn't prepare for it 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Remarks on economic aspects of distribution GMO 

It is considered that the volume of agricultural production genetically modified (GM) for 2009 has grown on 15 %. It was the seventh year under the account, with an annual gain of such production in the world more, than on 10 %. The areas under GM-cultures in the world by 2005 have made 67 million in hectare. Them grow up about 7 million farmers in 18 countries. 99 % of the areas under GM-cultures are in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, the USA and the republic of South Africa. First ten countries also includes Australia, India, Romania and Uruguay. The greatest gain of such areas – on 33 % in 2007 – was observed in China and the republic of South Africa (basically, for the account GM-clap). It is supposed that the next 5 years GM-culture will occupy the area in 100 million in hectare in 25 countries the world

Opponents of GM-cultures consider that the above-stated figures are obviously deformed, with the purpose to convince the planet population in (seeming) success GM-cultures. These figures mask growing tearing away GM-products, and failures with GM-cultures in such countries, as, for example, India, and also the information on ecological harm. Actually, transnational biotechnological campaigns assumed several years ago much faster distribution of  GM-cultures in the world. However, the first decade of commercial application GM production has shown that in its wide scales it was possible to introduce only in the USA, Canada and Argentina.

The farmers passing to cultivation of GM-cultures, believe that they get of advantage in productivity growth, reduction of production factors (raw materials, fertilizers) and competitiveness in comparison with usual cultures. In 2005 global market value grain GM-cultures has made 4,50 – 4,75 bln. dollars of the USA or 15 % of volume of the world market of vegetative agricultural products.

It is expected that world cost of GM-cultures by 2009 will make not less than 5 bln. dollars of the USA. Import GM-soya in EU in 2002 has been estimated in 1,5 bln. dollars of the USA.

The careful approach of China to GM foodstuff has disappointed the American farmers who expected growth of export to China after it has joined the WTO in the beginning of 2002 instead of it, sales of a soya to China (the basic export culture) have fallen to 23 % in comparison with 2001 It has occurred substantially because of entered by China long procedures of tests and licensing.

Cultivation GMO and use of GM-products with watchfulness meets both many experts, and the population, disturbed by questions of safety of the foodstuffs for consumers, influence of GMO on environment and ethical reasons.

This opposition is strongest in Europe, but last years became appreciable also in developing countries of the politician of EU evolves under the influence of wide discussion on dangers GMO towards possible prohibition of use GM-seeds and import GM-products. Consequences of such policy can be serious. In the center of discussions on GMO there are questions, what economic, social and ethical benefits and the expenses connected with GM-production? Benefits could include improvement of an ecological situation from reduction of chemicals, reception by means of biotechnologies of plants with desirable characteristics and expansion of stocks of the foodstuffs.

Costs can include the dangers connected with unsafe agricultural products, and also negative consequences of distribution GM-products if to the arsenal large farmers or transnational corporations GM-technology add. Ethical reasons are connected by that the gene the engineering expands intrusion of people into the natural processes, going far beyond usual plant growing.

According to polls of Department of agriculture of the USA, to 75 % of farmers consider that expectations of growth of a crop and, accordingly, profits were a transition principal cause on GM cultures. Five factors are thus allocated:

1. Top yield increase.

2. Increase in economically optimum crop.

3. Cultivation depreciation, at an invariable crop.

4. Improvement of quality of production.

5. Smaller risk of change of sale price.

However difficultly precisely to define an economic gain GM-cultures. Seeds GM-cultures cost more expensive usual seeds (a payment for new technologies): in the USA in 2005 the bag GM-corn cost 30 US dollars, a soya – 5 dollars that on 20 – 30 % are more expensive than seeds of usual grades. In Europe, on the average, cost GM-seeds has appeared on 35 % more expensively usual: 57 euros/hectares for H'm-soya in comparison with 42 euros/hectares for a usual soya (EU data for 2000). Agrotechnicaly more convenient (simple) cultivation GM-cultures, has appeared, it is difficult to estimate in expenditures of labor as new skills for their cultivation are required. The profit at sale GM production depends on productivity and market prices. Productivity depend on many factors and them not always simply to consider and compared.

Apparently from the data resulted in tab. 2, on the average, productivity GM-soya much more low. Concerning cost of herbicides it is necessary to notice that their application in the USA has begun in 1960th and has reached a maximum in 1994 when approximately 72 % of the areas under a soya were processed by herbicides. Under the data presented to EU report on a situation in America, approximately 27 % of farmers supported H'm-soya because of smaller expenses on herbicides (on 30-35€ / hectare). About the same results have been received at an estimation of expenses and profit for corn and a rape.

The marketing strategy of the biotechnological companies first of all has been directed for work with farmers who are interested with reduction of expenses on cultivation of a crop of agricultural crops. Concerning the cultures steady against herbicides, the marketing strategy has been based on the concept of "a technological package” – the complex price for H'm-semjana and herbicide. The wide advertizing company on advantages GM-cultures in «a corn belt» the USA was spent. The companies directed the representatives on fields, providing the commercial and technical help to farmers, thus, forming new expectations of profit at farmers