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When it comes to investing, analyzing financial statement information (also known as quantitative analysis), is one of, if not the most important element in the fundamental analysis process. At the same time, the massive amount of numbers in a company's financial statements can be bewildering and intimidating to many investors. However, through financial ratio analysis, you will be able to work with these numbers in an organized fashion.
Components:
The dollar amount in the numerator is the closing stock price for
Zimmer Holdings as of December 31, 2005 as reported in the financial
press or over the Internet in online quotes. In the denominator, the
EPS figure is calculated by dividing the company's reported net earnings
(income statement) by the weighted average number of common shares outstanding
(income statement) to obtain the $2.96 EPS figure. By simply dividing,
the equation gives us the P/E ratio that indicates (as of Zimmer Holdings'
2005 fiscal yearend) its stock (at $67.44) was trading at 22.8-times
the company's basic net earnings of $2.96 per share. This means that
investors would be paying $22.80 for every dollar of Zimmer Holdings'
earnings.
Variations:
The basic formula for calculating the P/E ratio is fairly standard.
There is never a problem with the numerator - an investor can obtain
a current closing stock price from various sources, and they'll all
generate the same dollar figure, which, of course, is a per-share number.
However, there are a number of variations in the numbers used for the
EPS figure in the denominator. The most commonly used EPS dollar figures
include the following:
Commentary:
A stock with a high P/E ratio suggests that investors are expecting
higher earnings growth in the future compared to the overall market,
as investors are paying more for today's earnings in anticipation of
future earnings growth. Hence, as a generalization, stocks with this
characteristic are considered to be growth
stocks. Conversely, a stock
with a low P/E ratio suggests that investors have more modest expectations
for its future growth compared to the market as a whole.
The growth
investor views high P/E ratio
stocks as attractive buys and low P/E stocks as flawed, unattractive
prospects. Value
investors are not inclined
to buy growth stocks at what they consider to be overpriced values,
preferring instead to buy what they see as underappreciated and undervalued
stocks, at a bargain price, which, over time, will hopefully perform well.
Note: Though this indicator gets a lot of investor attention, there
is an important problem that arises with this valuation indicator and
investors should avoid basing an investment decision solely on this measure.
The ratio's denominator (earnings per share) is based on accounting
conventions related to a determination of earnings that is susceptible
to assumptions, interpretations and management manipulation. This means
that the quality of the P/E ratio is only as good as the quality of
the underlying earnings number.
Whatever the limitations of the P/E ratio, the investment community
makes extensive use of this valuation metric. It will appear in most
stock quote presentations on an updated basis, i.e., the latest 12-months
earnings (based on the most recent reported quarter) divided by the
current stock price. Investors considering a stock purchase should then
compare this current P/E ratio against the stock's long-term (three
to five years) historical record. This information is readily available
in Value Line or S&P stock reports, as well as from most financial
websites, such as Yahoo!Financeand MarketWatc
It's also worthwhile to look at the current P/E ratio for the overall
market (S&P 500), the company's industry segment, and two or three
direct competitor companies. This comparative exercise can help investors
evaluate the P/E of their prospective stock purchase as being in a high,
low or moderate price range.
To learn more, check out Understanding
The P/E Ratio,Analyze Investments Quickly
With Ratios and Move Over P/E, Make Way
For The PEG.
Investment Valuation Ratios: Price/Earnings To Growth Ratio
The price/earnings
to growth ratio, commonly
referred to as the PEG ratio, is obviously closely related to the P/E ratio. The PEG ratio is a refinement of the P/E ratio
and factors in a stock's estimated earnings growth into its current
valuation. By comparing a stock's P/E ratio with its projected, or estimated, earnings per share (EPS) growth, investors are given insight into
the degree of overpricing or underpricing of a stock's current valuation,
as indicated by the traditional P/E ratio.
The general consensus is that if the PEG ratio indicates a value of
1, this means that the market is correctly valuing (the current P/E
ratio) a stock in accordance with the stock's current estimated earnings
per share growth. If the PEG ratio is less than 1, this means that EPS
growth is potentially able to surpass the market's current valuation.
In other words, the stock's price is being undervalued. On the other
hand, stocks with high PEG ratios can indicate just the opposite - that
the stock is currently overvalued.
Formula:
Components:
For the numerator, we are using Zimmer Holdings' P/E ratio, as calculated
in the last
chapter, for its fiscal yearend,
December 30, 2005. The denominator, estimated earnings per share growth
in 2006, is based on data found in a Value Line stock report on Zimmer
Holdings.
Variations:
None
Commentary:
While the P/E ratio represents a very simple and widely used method
of valuing a stock, it does lack one very important variable. The assumption
with high P/E stocks (generally of the growth variety) is that investors
are willing to buy at a high price because they believe that the stock
has significant growth potential. The PEG ratio helps investors determine
the degree of reliability of that growth assumption.
Although the PEG ratio improves upon (i.e. provides additional valuation
insight) the P/E ratio, it is still far from perfect. The problem lies
with the numerator and the denominator in the equation. Misreading of
a company's and/or analysts' predictions of future earnings are very
common. Also, investor sentiment regarding a stock's pricing and earnings
prospects is usually overly optimistic during bull markets and overly
pessimistic in bear markets.
The question of where investors can source the data necessary to calculate
the PEG ratio focuses entirely on the estimated future growth of per-share
earnings. A stock's P/E ratio appears in virtually all price quotes
regardless of their origin. Estimated earnings growth shows up in investment
research reports and financial analysts' comments in the financial press
but may require some digging to find it.
In this regard, the historical and estimated performance of a company's
earnings per share is easily obtained from Value Line stock reports,
which are available by subscription to the Value Line Investment Survey.
It should also be noted that most public libraries carry a Value Line
subscription, which, therefore, makes its stock reports available free
of charge to the general public.
Using Zimmer Holdings as an illustration, let's take a look at the data
in question in a December 1, 2006 Value Line stock report on the company.
At the top of the report, Value Line reports a trailing P/E ratio of
22.6. Zimmer Holdings went public in 2001, so we have five years of
actual EPS, as well as Value Line's one, two, and three-to-five year
EPS estimates in the per share data box.
Value Line estimates a +11% EPS growth for the 2005-2006 period and
+14% growth rate for 2007. So, at yearend 2006 we are looking at a PEG
ratio for Zimmer of 1.61 (22.6 P/E ratio ÷ 14% EPS growth). Some peer
company PEG ratio comparisons would give investors an idea of the strength
or weakness of this valuation indicator at that point in time.
To learn more, check out Understanding
The P/E Ratio,Analyze Investments Quickly
With Ratios and Move Over P/E, Make Way
For The PEG.
Investment Valuation Ratios: Price/Sales Ratio
A stock's price/sales
ratio (P/S ratio) is another
stock valuation indicator similar to the P/E
ratio. The P/S ratio measures
the price of a company's stock against its annual sales, instead of
earnings.
Like the P/E ratio, the P/S reflects how many times investors are paying
for every dollar of a company's sales. Since earnings are subject, to
one degree or another, to accounting estimates and management manipulation,
many investors consider a company's sales (revenue) figure a more reliable
ratio component in calculating a stock's price multiple than the earnings
figure.
Formula:
Components:
The dollar amount in
the numerator is the closing stock price for Zimmer Holdings as of December
31, 2005, as reported in the financial press or over the internet in
online quotes. In the denominator, the sales per share figure is calculated
by dividing the reported net earnings (income statement) by the weighted
average number of common shares outstanding (income statement) to obtain
the $13.30 sales per share figure. By simply dividing, the equation
gives us a P/S ratio indicating that, as of Zimmer Holdings 2005 fiscal
yearend, its stock (at $67.44) was trading at 5.1-times the company's
sales of $13.30 per share. This means that investors would be paying
$5.10 for every dollar of Zimmer Holdings' sales.
Variations:
None
Commentary:
"The king of the value factors" is how James O'Shaughnessy
describes the P/S ratio in his seminal book on investing strategies, What
Works on Wall Street (McGraw-Hill, 1997). Using Standard & Poor's
CompuStat database, his exhaustive analysis makes clear that "the
stock market methodically rewards certain investment strategies while
punishing others." No matter what your style of investing, O'Shaughnessy's
research concludes that "low price-to-sales ratios beat the market
more than any other value ratio, and do so more consistently."
As powerful a valuation metric as the P/S ratio may be, it would be
a mistake for investors to put all their stock price valuation eggs
in one basket. However, the P/S ratio does provide another perspective
that complements the other valuation indicators - particularly the P/E
ratio - and is a worthwhile addition to an investor's stock analysis
toolbox.
Investment Valuation Ratios: Dividend Yield
A stock's dividend
yield is expressed as an annual
percentage and is calculated as the company's annual cash dividend per
share divided by the current price of the stock. The dividend yield
is found in the stock quotes of dividend-paying companies. Investors
should note that stock quotes record the per share dollar amount of
a company's latest quarterly declared dividend. This quarterly dollar
amount is annualized and compared to the current stock price to generate
the per annum dividend yield, which represents an expected return.
Income investors value a dividend-paying stock, while growth investors
have little interest in dividends, preferring to capture large capital gains. Whatever your investing style, it is a matter
of historical record that dividend-paying stocks have performed better
than non-paying-dividend stocks over the long term.
Formula:
Components:
Zimmer Holdings does not pay a dividend, so the $1.00 dividend per share
amount is being used for illustration purposes. In the company's stock
quote the latest quarterly dividend would be recorded as $0.25 (per
share) and the share price as $67.44 as of yearend 2005. On this basis,
the stock would have a dividend yield of 1.48%.
Variations:
None
Commentary:
A stock's dividend yield depends on the nature of a company's business,
its posture in the marketplace (valueor growth oriented), its earnings and cash flow, and its
dividend policy. For example, steady, mature businesses, such as utilities
and banks, are generally good dividend payers. REIT stocks, with their
relatively stable inflow of rental payments, are also recognized for
their attractive dividend yields. If you're an income investor, a stock's
dividend yield might well be the only valuation measurement that matters
to you. On the other hand, if you're in the growth stock camp, dividend
yield (or the lack of one) will be meaningless.
Investment Valuation Ratios: Enterprise Value Multiple
This valuation metric is calculated by
dividing a company's "enterprise
value" by its earnings before interest expense,
taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).
Overall, this measurement allows investors to assess a company on the
same basis as that of an acquirer. As a rough calculation, enterprise
value multiple serves as a proxy for how long it would take for an acquisition to earn enough to pay off its costs (assuming
no change in EBITDA).
Formula:
Components:
|
Enterprise value is calculated by adding a company's debt, minority interest,
and preferred stock to its market capitalization (stock price times number
of shares outstanding). The data for Zimmer Holdings' enterprise value
and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)
were obtained from its stock quote, income statement and balance sheet
as of December 31, 2005. By simply dividing, the equation gives us the
company's enterprise multiple of 15.7, which means that it would take
roughly 16 years for earnings (assuming EBITDA doesn't change) to pay
off the acquisition cost of Zimmer Holdings.
Variations:
None
Commentary:
Enterprise value, also referred to as the value of the enterprise,
is basically a modification of market capitalization, which is determined
by simply multiplying a company's number of shares outstanding by the
current price of its stock. Obviously, a company's stock price is heavily
influenced by investor sentiment and market conditions, which, in turn,
will be determined by a company's market-cap
value.
On the other hand, a company's enterprise value, which is the metric
used by the acquiring party in an acquisition, is a term used by financial
analysts to arrive at a value of a company viewed as a going concern
rather than market capitalization. For example, in simple terms, long-term
debt and cash in a company's balance sheet are important factors in
arriving at enterprise value - both effectively serve to enhance company's
value for the acquiring company.
As mentioned previously, enterprise value considerations seldom find
their way into standard stock analysis reporting. However, it is true
that by using enterprise value, instead of market capitalization, to
look at the book or market-cap value of a company, investors can get
a sense of whether or not a company is undervalued.